BoWabB - Bark beetle outbreaks and forest fires in Bavarian mountain forests: risk analysis and management in transition
Duration: 2026-2029
Funding: Bavarian State Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Tourism
Contact: Rupert Seidl
About
The main objective of the project is to evaluate the climate-related risk of novel disturbance regimes, such as European spruce bark beetle outbreaks at high elevations and increased forest fires in the Northern Alps. Building on this, concrete practical recommendations for preventing and dealing with novel disturbances are developed. Rapidly advancing climate change is profoundly altering forests, among other things through large-scale disturbances (e.g. by bark beetles or forest fires). Examples from the Southern Alps, such as bark beetle outbreaks at high elevations in southern Austria or forest fires in northern Italy, raise the question of how likely such developments are in the Northern Alps in the future. The project uses an innovative mix of methods combining statistical modelling and field surveys with process modelling and stakeholder workshops. Based on climate projections, WP1 determines where in the Bavarian Alps and when in the 21st century disturbance regimes similar to those of the Southern Alps must be expected. Based on these climate projections, WP2 models the expected development potential specifically for the European spruce bark beetle using different phenology models. Through literature research and expert interviews, WP3 identifies socio-structural factors that increase disturbance risk. These are determined at stand level by GIS analysis in order to create a regionalised risk map. WP4 uses comparative vegetation surveys to assess the resilience of Bavarian mountain forests to novel disturbances. Finally, in WP5, process modelling is used to test various silvicultural measures for their mitigating effect on novel disturbance regimes. In WP6, bark beetle monitoring is extended on a trial basis according to the risk assessment from WPs 1–3. The results of all WPs are developed further into concrete, locally feasible measures through workshops with local stakeholders in relevant example regions.